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商业地产持续升温 住宅地块前景难言乐观
http://www.pudongoffice.com 浦东写字楼网-浦东办公楼网   来源:网络   2012-2-20 20:26:00

Pick to: year of the Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high. The Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high.

Analytic personage thinks, this year is expected to commercial plots sold will be the continuation of last year's hot market, the local government will increase the commercial plots sold concessions and support. Increase strength of commercial plots of land to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role.

The country or play the " business card"

Hefei Land Resources Bureau website recently disclosed information display, Hefei City Hall in February 1st announced the implementation of" on the promotion of stock commercial land upgrading to improve land use efficiency of opinions"," about invigorated the stock of land for construction to improve land use efficiency" and" the opinions on promoting the intensive use of industrial land .". Analysis of the industry, in the three land deal, the most eye-catching is for a total investment of 500000000 yuan in the large commercial projects, on the price of land given 5 to 30 percent off preferential. This will greatly motivate the real estate development business to local commercial plots with enthusiasm.

A number of experts and the industry said, due to the central policy of estate adjusting control to relax, this year the national land leasing situation can hardly be optimistic about. In the property market downturn, adjustment of land policy and land income reduction, local fiscal pressures have a relationship. Accelerate the commercial land transfer will undoubtedly become a local government of the important ways to ease the financial pressure. The future of the local government may according to market demand and their own situation, increase the commercial land concessions and support.

Ministry of land and Resources Survey Planning Institute deputy chief engineer Zou Xiaoyun said, each local government making the annual land supply plan, according to market demand make corresponding adjustment is quite reasonable. Beijing Centaline Market Research Department Director Zhang Dawei said, increase strength commercial plots of land, not only to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, but not with the central government's policy of estate adjusting control conflict; long term, commercial land, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role. There are some two or three line City Brewing increase the commercial land concessions and support.

Commercial real estate warms up continuously

Shanghai Land Bureau website, February 15th auction a Shanghai Yangpu District commercial office space, the end to a high of 138% of the premium rate of turnover, the price floor price of 131000000 yuan, 16582 yuan per square metre. Analysis of the industry, 138% of the premium rate is not high, but Shanghai, Dalian and many of the commercial land transfer performance is satisfactory, this means 2012 commercial land transfer or fiery situation will continue in 2011. Beijing Centaline Market Research Director Zhang Dawei also thinks, commercial land will still be 2012 transfer window.

First Pacific Davies Beijing research and consultancy department director Wang Qiong believes the first-tier cities, especially in the housing market slump, the market is expected to continue to decline. The development of commercial real estate continued good momentum in 2011. On one hand, in the property market regulatory policy constraints, commercial real estate was once considered to be the real estate market "port"; on the other hand, after the domestic commercial real estate remains in the doldrums, and the city changes process of steady progress, the current commercial real estate is gradually entered a" golden development period". At present, the housing enterprises and market are optimistic about the domestic commercial real estate development trend.

Chain of the real estate market research department statistics, in 2011 Beijing and Shanghai commercial real estate sales amount of 175340000000 yuan, an increase of about 1250000000 yuan. While the housing market turnover of 317093000000 yuan, less than 100000000000 yuan, year-on-year decline reached 25.3%. Shanghai commercial real estate and commercial housing sales area and sales reached since 2007. Chain of home real estate market research department to think, to commercial real estate development at present and the maturity of the first-tier cities demand looks, still as the main market.

A senior commercial real estate industry source said, the current market of monetary tightening, the housing funds greater pressure. While commercial real estate compared to the residential or industrial estate, the rate of return and risk control of the relative is a better choice.

Not to mention optimistic about the prospects of residential land

Analysis of the industry, if the commercial land grades, but by the residential land transfer market offers drag, is expected around the annual land situation still not hopeful. Land Liupai, price transactions situation or still appears again and again throughout the housing land leasing market.

Shanghai city had a plot of land from the listing to the closing date for application, the number of 10 people, but to submit bids for only 1 people, the final listing announced ahead of the auction. Coincidentally, February 14th, Beijing city for the first time in 2012 1 cases were residential land, land transfer income 2370000000 yuan. Chain of home real estate market research department according to the plots of land planning construction area calculation, the floor price of 12523 yuan / square metre, the premium rate is 0. According to the chain of home real estate market research department statistics, at present Beijing City Trading under the land only 4 block is a pure residential land, and in 2011 November launched, to date no bid.

Zhang Dawei analysis, the housing enterprises financial pressure is still large, the rate of" cash is king" strategy, the national land market cold and cheerless. And regulatory policy still tighten, led to the housing auction residential land enough passion. In 2012 the land transfer market, especially in the first half of the year the situation will be more grim.

 

要:  龙年伊始,由于预期房地产宏观调控政策难以放松,全国各地住宅土地出让形势倍显冷清,但商业地块出让频频拍出高价。  龙年伊始,由于预期房地产宏观调控政策难以放松,全国各地住宅土地出让形势倍显冷清,但商业地块出让频频拍出高价。

 

  分析人士认为,预计今年商业地块出让将延续去年的火爆行情,各地方政府将加大对商业地块出让的优惠和支持力度。加大商业地块推出力度能在一定程度上对冲土地出让下滑的颓势,商业地产的开发和运营也对地方招商引资、拉动经济作用巨大。

 

  各地或大打“商业牌”

 

  合肥国土资源局网站近日公开的信息显示,合肥市政府于21日宣布实施《关于促进存量商业用地升级改造提高土地利用效率的意见》、《关于盘活存量建设用地提高土地利用效率的意见》和《关于促进工业用地集约利用的意见》。业内人士分析,在这三大土地新政中,最吸引眼球的是对于总投资在5亿元以上的大型商业项目,在地价上给予57折优惠。此举势必极大地调动房地产开发企业对当地商业地块的拿地热情。

 

  多位专家和业内人士表示,由于中央的房地产调控政策难以放松,今年全国土地出让形势难言乐观。在楼市低迷的情况下,土地政策调整也与土地收入缩减、地方财政压力加大有一定关联。加快商业用地的出让无疑将成为地方政府减轻财政压力的重要途径。未来各地方政府可能根据市场需求和自身情况,加大对商业用地出让的优惠和支持力度。

 

  国土资源部土地勘测规划院副总工程师邹晓云表示,各地方政府制定全年土地供应计划时,根据市场需求做出相应的调整比较合理。北京中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟表示,加大商业地块推出力度,既能在一定程度上对冲土地出让下滑的颓势,又不会与中央的房地产调控政策相冲突;长期而言,商业地块、商业地产的开发和运营对地方的招商引资、拉动经济作用巨大。目前已有部分二三线城市酝酿加大对商业用地出让的优惠和支持力度。

 

  商业地产持续升温

 

  上海国土局网站显示,215日拍卖一幅上海杨浦区商业办公用地,该地最终以高达138%的溢价率成交,中标总价1.31亿元,楼面地价每平方米16582元。业内人士分析,138%的溢价率虽不算高,但上海、大连等多地的商业用地出让成绩颇为喜人,这意味着2012年商业用地出让或将延续2011年的火热形势。北京中原地产市场研究总监张大伟也认为,商业用地仍将是2012年土地出让的亮点。

 

  第一太平戴维斯北京研究及顾问咨询部董事王琼认为,全国尤其是一线城市的商品住宅市场低迷不振,市场预期持续走低。商业地产的发展仍延续2011年的良好势头。一方面,在不受楼市调控政策约束的情况下,商业地产一度被认为是房地产市场的“避风港”;另一方面,此前国内商业地产持续低迷,而城市化进程稳步推进,目前商业地产正逐渐步入“黄金发展期”。目前,房企和市场均看好国内商业地产的长期发展趋势。

 

  链家地产市场研究部统计,2011年北京和上海商业地产销售金额为1753.4亿元,同比增加约12.5亿元。而商品住宅市场成交金额为3170.93亿元,减少超过1000亿元,同比降幅达到25.3%。京沪两地的商业地产与商品住宅销售面积和销售额分别达到自2007年以来的高点。链家地产市场研究部认为,以商业地产目前的发展成熟度和需求量看,一线城市依然为主要市场。

 

  某资深商业地产业内人士表示,当前市场银根紧缩,房企资金压力较大。而商业地产相比住宅或工业地产,在收益率和风险控制方面相对都是较好的选择。

 

  住宅地块前景难言乐观

 

  业内人士分析,即使商业用地出让成绩可期,但受住宅用地出让市场冷清的拖累,预计各地全年土地出让形势仍难言乐观。土地流拍、底价成交的局面或仍频频出现在全国各地的住宅土地出让市场。

 

  上海市此前一地块从挂牌到截止日,领取申请书的人数有10人,但递交竞买申请的却只有1个人,最终挂牌人宣布提前竞拍。无独有偶,214日,北京市2012年首次成交1宗住宅用地,土地出让收益共23.7亿元。链家地产市场研究部根据该地块的规划建筑面积测算,楼面价为12523/平米,溢价率为0。而根据链家地产市场研究部统计,目前北京市正在交易的地块仅有4块是纯住宅用地,且均在201111月份推出,推出至今未有任何出价。

 

  张大伟分析,各家房企资金压力仍大,房企的“现金为王”策略,使得全国土地市场冷清。而且调控政策预期依然收紧,导致房企竞拍住宅用地的热情不足。2012年的土地出让市场,尤其是上半年的形势将更加严峻.

 

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