Pick to: year of the Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high. The Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high.

Analytic personage thinks, this year is expected to commercial plots sold will be the continuation of last year's hot market, the local government will increase the commercial plots sold concessions and support. Increase strength of commercial plots of land to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role.

The country or play the " business card"

Hefei Land Resources Bureau website recently disclosed information display, Hefei City Hall in February 1st announced the implementation of" on the promotion of stock commercial land upgrading to improve land use efficiency of opinions"," about invigorated the stock of land for construction to improve land use efficiency" and" the opinions on promoting the intensive use of industrial land .". Analysis of the industry, in the three land deal, the most eye-catching is for a total investment of 500000000 yuan in the large commercial projects, on the price of land given 5 to 30 percent off preferential. This will greatly motivate the real estate development business to local commercial plots with enthusiasm.

A number of experts and the industry said, due to the central policy of estate adjusting control to relax, this year the national land leasing situation can hardly be optimistic about. In the property market downturn, adjustment of land policy and land income reduction, local fiscal pressures have a relationship. Accelerate the commercial land transfer will undoubtedly become a local government of the important ways to ease the financial pressure. The future of the local government may according to market demand and their own situation, increase the commercial land concessions and support.

Ministry of land and Resources Survey Planning Institute deputy chief engineer Zou Xiaoyun said, each local government making the annual land supply plan, according to market demand make corresponding adjustment is quite reasonable. Beijing Centaline Market Research Department Director Zhang Dawei said, increase strength commercial plots of land, not only to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, but not with the central government's policy of estate adjusting control conflict; long term, commercial land, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role. There are some two or three line City Brewing increase the commercial land concessions and support.

Commercial real estate warms up continuously

Shanghai Land Bureau website, February 15th auction a Shanghai Yangpu District commercial office space, the end to a high of 138% of the premium rate of turnover, the price floor price of 131000000 yuan, 16582 yuan per square metre. Analysis of the industry, 138% of the premium rate is not high, but Shanghai, Dalian and many of the commercial land transfer performance is satisfactory, this means 2012 commercial land transfer or fiery situation will continue in 2011. Beijing Centaline Market Research Director Zhang Dawei also thinks, commercial land will still be 2012 transfer window.

First Pacific Davies Beijing research and consultancy department director Wang Qiong believes the first-tier cities, especially in the housing market slump, the market is expected to continue to decline. The development of commercial real estate continued good momentum in 2011. On one hand, in the property market regulatory policy constraints, commercial real estate was once considered to be the real estate market "port"; on the other hand, after the domestic commercial real estate remains in the doldrums, and the city changes process of steady progress, the current commercial real estate is gradually entered a" golden development period". At present, the housing enterprises and market are optimistic about the domestic commercial real estate development trend.

Chain of the real estate market research department statistics, in 2011 Beijing and Shanghai commercial real estate sales amount of 175340000000 yuan, an increase of about 1250000000 yuan. While the housing market turnover of 317093000000 yuan, less than 100000000000 yuan, year-on-year decline reached 25.3%. Shanghai commercial real estate and commercial housing sales area and sales reached since 2007. Chain of home real estate market research department to think, to commercial real estate development at present and the maturity of the first-tier cities demand looks, still as the main market.

A senior commercial real estate industry source said, the current market of monetary tightening, the housing funds greater pressure. While commercial real estate compared to the residential or industrial estate, the rate of return and risk control of the relative is a better choice.

Not to mention optimistic about the prospects of residential land

Analysis of the industry, if the commercial land grades, but by the residential land transfer market offers drag, is expected around the annual land situation still not hopeful. Land Liupai, price transactions situation or still appears again and again throughout the housing land leasing market.

Shanghai city had a plot of land from the listing to the closing date for application, the number of 10 people, but to submit bids for only 1 people, the final listing announced ahead of the auction. Coincidentally, February 14th, Beijing city for the first time in 2012 1 cases were residential land, land transfer income 2370000000 yuan. Chain of home real estate market research department according to the plots of land planning construction area calculation, the floor price of 12523 yuan / square metre, the premium rate is 0. According to the chain of home real estate market research department statistics, at present Beijing City Trading under the land only 4 block is a pure residential land, and in 2011 November launched, to date no bid.

Zhang Dawei analysis, the housing enterprises financial pressure is still large, the rate of" cash is king" strategy, the national land market cold and cheerless. And regulatory policy still tighten, led to the housing auction residential land enough passion. In 2012 the land transfer market, especially in the first half of the year the situation will be more grim.

摘 要：2012年四季度，部分债券将进入回售期，然而，房地产行业资金状况的持续恶化令人担忧，房地产企业现金流以及偿付能力到底如何演变？　　2012年四季度，部分债券将进入回售期，然而，房地产行业资金状况的持续恶化令人担忧，房地产企业现金流以及偿付能力到底如何演变？

　　目前来看，房地产政策还未见明显放松，而销售量仍然在较低平台，房企依靠自身获得回款的能力较差，同时政策控制也扼制了房企的融资渠道。

　　在信贷紧缩的大环境下，房企从银行获得资金越来越困难。如果不出现销售的反转和流动性的缓解，房地产公司的现金流状况将会持续恶化。房地产债券的风险溢价水平会在一段时间内维持高位，甚至不排除出现行业内大规模的违约事件，连累房地产债风险溢价率水平的抬升，甚至影响可能扩大到中低等级信用债券。

　　以09银基债为例。目前交易净价维持在99元左右，低于100元的面值。如果这一情况在2012年11月16日前无法根本性转变的话，届时债券持有人选择行使提前回售权的概率相当高。而按2011年三季报披露的资金状况，银基发展（000511）的财务实力，不足以完全覆盖高达5.5亿元的债券本金及其衍生出的4400万元一年债券利息。面临偿债压力的企业债并非09银基债一家。

　　目前交易所市场共有31只房地产公司债在交易中，发债主体28个，从房地产债的到期日期分布来看，若不考虑回售条款，集中到期时间是在2013年三季度和2014年三四季度；若考虑回售条款，则2012年四季度将迎来第一个到期高峰。

　　中小企业偿债危机

　　二级市场上，去年12月中旬，部分房地产债已出现较大幅度的下跌。跌幅较大的主要是09万业债和09泛海债，一个月内收益率上升均超过1.5%，09泛海债的收益率已突破10%的水平。

　　市场对于房市不景气的预期仍在发酵之中，尤其是对于信用等级较低的债券，给予了较高溢价水平，对房企的悲观预期甚至影响了债市的风险溢价水平。

　　自去年9月初债券市场开始恢复以来，我们仅仅看到高等级信用债利差的回复，而中低等级的信用利差则出现和高等级相悖的走势，一直扩大，近期虽然略有收窄，但是仍然维持在高位。

　　市场对房地产企业发行债券的担忧更甚，如果没有强有力的第三方担保（银行担保或者集团担保），地产债的收益率（取到期收益率和回售收益率的最大值）绝大多数都高于同等级同期限债券的估值水平。

　　而房地产各债因资质不同，收益率水平也开始出现分化。对于收益率高的龙头企业，自然不用担心偿债问题，而对于资质不高的小企业，则可能面临破产危险。

　　从长期偿债能力上看，截至2011年三季度，房地产企业净负债情况表现出两种趋势，大型房企的净负债率依然保持在较低水平，甚至在2008年以后主动采取了收缩投资等策略，主动降低了企业杠杆水平，例如金地、万科、万通、保利、天房，负债率水平基本控制在45%以下。

　　但同时，中小房企净负债率都处在较高水平，30%以上房地产发债企业的净负债率高于60%，而09津滨债、09苏高新、09中企债的净负债率甚至高于65%。

　　从短期偿债能力看，部分公司的短期偿债能力已弱于2008年水平。25家发行人中，账面货币资金不足覆盖短期债务的发行人达12家。而在这12家发行人中，09宁高科、09中企、09沪张江、09亿城和09金丰债，不但货币资金对短期贷款的覆盖率不强，而且较2008年的水平还有恶化。

　　由于后续对房地产销售的崛起短期内并不乐观，而流动性的放松传导到实体经济还有待时日，我们认为房地产企业偿债能力最差的时刻还没有过去。

最坏时刻或在二季度

　　在房地产现金流入方面，主要是看销售回款额的多少，而决定回款额的因素主要是房地产政策的放松或者流动性的宽松。按照房地产市场的销售情况预测，房地产投资将继续在2012年下滑，假设新开工面积的增速为-20%，房地产销售增速为0，那么房地产行业库存将在2012年上半年达到高峰。2012年四季度，在供应收缩的情况下，即使房地产销售没有起色，库存也将出现明显下降。房地产政策放松的时点越晚，越有可能由于刚性需求爆发和供应的收缩导致房价大幅反弹。因此，我们预期放松地产调控的时点大约在2012年二季度或三季度，此时由于商品住宅库存仍处于高位，放松地产政策也难以触发房价大幅上涨。

　　在现金流出方面，由于企业对于投资性支出有一定的调节能力，可以通过放慢工程进度与减少新开工来调节工程费用的支出等，而债务支出则具有一定刚性。对于到期债务，企业目前采取的融资形式主要是银行贷款和信托融资，相对来说，信托的滚动融资能力比银行贷款更差，一般不能展期，信托融资在资金收紧的情况下断裂的风险较银行贷款大。根据信托业协会公布的目前6798亿元信托规模，2012年到期信托规模在3000亿元以上，体量远大于债券市场。到期规模的翻倍外加后续资金来源的不足可能导致房地产信托出现偿付危机。

　　因此，房地产现金流最紧张的时间很可能出现在2012年二季度，后期由于政策方面和流动性的实质性宽松，房地产企业最终会渡过难关。期间外部融资的不畅叠加内部销售回款不到位，如果与投资周期产生错配，不排除出现企业倒闭的风险。

　　房企未来博弈机会

　　展望房地产企业未来的博弈机会，主要来源于两个方面：

　　一是在2012年四季度将有部分债券进入回售期，企业面临债券回售压力时很有可能采取较为优厚的条款来阻止回售，进而带来交易性机会。

　　二是在政策放松或者在流动性全面放松之后，房地产企业的资金紧张状况应该能够得到缓解，届时房地产债券风险溢价水平下降的空间较大。

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